Growth model

Stop pouring water into a leaky bucket.

Dave McClure's "Pirate Metrics" — Acquisition, Activation, Retention, Referral, Revenue (AARRR) — model your customers as a leaky funnel. The instinct when growth stalls is to buy more traffic: pour more in at the top. But if the bucket leaks at activation or retention, that water runs straight out. The biggest wins hide in the leakiest stage — and retention, quietly, multiplies everything below it. Tune the funnel below and find your leak.

01 — The funnel

Follow a cohort down the funnel.

A cohort of visitors arrives at the top. Each stage passes only a fraction through. Drag the conversion rates and watch the survivors — and the revenue — change. The leakiest stage is highlighted automatically: that's where a few points are worth more than a flood of new traffic.

02 — How it's different

Growth isn't a traffic problem.

Most "growth" plans are really acquisition plans — more ads, more SEO, more top of funnel. AARRR forces you to look at the whole journey, and it reveals why retention is a multiplier, not just another stage: every point of retention lifts referral and revenue underneath it.

LensFocuses onThe trap it avoids
"Just get more traffic"Top of funnel only
AARRR funnelEvery stage's conversionFilling a bucket that leaks lower down
FlywheelRetention & referral feeding acquisitionTreating growth as linear, not compounding
Sales funnelLead → close (one purchase)Ignoring what happens after the sale

Leverage lives downstream. Try it in the model above: a small lift on your leakiest mid-funnel stage almost always beats a big, expensive lift in acquisition — because every stage below it multiplies the gain.

03 — Where to invest

You've got ten points. Spend them well.

Here's a fixed budget of ten improvement points. Allocate them across the stages and watch the revenue lift. Pour them all into acquisition and see what you get — then move them to the leak and watch the number jump. That's the whole lesson in one slider.

Allocate your points above

Each point adds conversion to a stage. The optimiser (dashed) shows the best possible spend — try to match it.

04 — In the wild

Where the leak actually is.

Four real shapes of leaky bucket.

01

Great sign-ups, leaky onboarding

A SaaS pays for a flood of trials, but most users never reach the "aha" moment. The fix is activation — not another ad campaign.

02

Churn eating the growth

New users arrive as fast as old ones leave, so the base never grows. Retention is the multiplier; plug it and every stage below compounds.

03

The referral loop

Happy, retained users bring friends — turning the funnel into a flywheel where retention feeds acquisition for free.

04

The abandoned cart

E-commerce with huge traffic and a checkout that leaks at the last step. A tiny activation/revenue fix beats doubling the ad spend.

05 — Go deeper

Find the leak before you turn up the tap.

The discipline isn't the acronym — it's measuring each stage honestly, resisting the urge to buy your way out at the top, and fixing the one stage with the most leverage. That's the work we do with the growth and product teams we coach: less spray-and-pray, more finding the leak.

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TAKE ONE

Fix the leak before adding water

More traffic into a leaky funnel just runs out the bottom. Find the leakiest stage first.

TAKE TWO

Retention multiplies everything

It's not one stage among five — it lifts referral and revenue underneath it. Treat it as the multiplier it is.

TAKE THREE

The funnel becomes a flywheel

When retained users refer others, growth stops being something you buy and starts compounding on its own.